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Title Urban Texas - Part Four
Pub. Date November 2017

Migration from outside of Texas is the leading source of recent population growth in the state’s major metropolitan areas. Immigration is a key factor in this external migration, accounting for around 12 percent of all external in-migration. In three of the state’s four one-million plus urban areas*, new immigrants exceeded the combined number of net internal and net domestic migrants.

As a group, external migrants are drawn to the state’s major metropolitan areas. However, immigrants are the most likely to settle in the MSA’s most populated county (i.e., principal county). In all four of the one-million plus MSAs, the principal counties’ shares of immigrants were larger than their shares of domestic in-migrants and internal in-migrants. For example, Harris County (the principal county of the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA) received 76.4 percent of the MSA’s immigrants versus 67.8 percent of the MSA’s domestic in-migrants and 48.6 percent of the MSA’s internal in-migrants.

The concentration of immigrants in the urban core has increased over time. In the five most populous Texas counties (Bexar, Dallas, Harris, Tarrant, and Travis), their collective share of all Texas immigrants grew from 47.3 percent in 2008 to 54.6 percent in 2016. This occurred even though these five counties contained less than 45 percent of the state’s population throughout the 2008-2016 period.

Texas immigrants are not only becoming more concentrated in the MSA’s principal county, they also are becoming more diverse. For much of the 20th century, Mexico was the predominant source of immigration to Texas. This pattern began to change appreciably in the early 21st century. Most notably, Mexican immigration has declined while immigration from Asia and other regions has increased. In contemporary Texas MSAs, Asian immigrants outnumber Mexican immigrants. For example, in the 2010-2014 period, 37.6 percent of all MSA immigrants arrived from Asia compared to 33.1 percent from Mexico and Central America. Today, in the state’s metropolitan areas, no single group of new immigrants is a majority. Immigrants to urban Texas represent an increasing variety of countries and this is adding to the diversity of the state’s major metropolitan areas.

Immigrants are more likely to settle in an MSA’s principal county while domestic and internal migrants are more likely to disperse to suburban counties within the MSA. These patterns suggest a continuing process of population redistribution inside the state’s major MSAs. In time, this remixing would produce an increasing concentration of people with varied international origins in the centers of the state’s major metropolitan areas. Consequently, this process of population redistribution has the potential to realign existing political and cultural boundaries within Texas’ largest urban areas.

*The Texas MSAs with 1,000,000 or more residents in 2010 are Austin-Round Rock, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, and San Antonio-New Braunfels.

Authors Steve White, Dr. Lloyd Potter, Dr. Helen You, Dr. Lila Valencia, Dr. Jeffrey A. Jordan, and Sara Robinson
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Title Urban Texas - Part Three
Pub. Date October 2017

Migration from outside of Texas is a major factor in the state’s metropolitan growth. As a group, the state’s 25 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) gained 5,943 residents from internal migration within Texas and this is substantially smaller than the 276,948 gained from net domestic migration and immigration (i.e., international migration). As such, the metro areas gained around 47 net migrants from external migration for each net migrant gained from internal migration.

Non-metropolitan areas also have grown from external migration. However, the impacts of external migration on non-metro population growth have been more limited. The net domestic migration rate in non-metros was 2.22 net migrants per 1,000 residents compared to 4.49 net migrants per 1,000 in metro areas. There was a similar urban-rural rate differential for immigration. The metropolitan immigration rate (7.68) was almost two times larger than the non-metropolitan rate (4.05).

When internal, domestic, and international migration were combined, the overall migration rate for metro areas was 12.43 net migrants per 1,000 residents while that for non-metro areas was 4.28 net migrants per 1,000 residents. With this, the metro growth rate from migration was 2.9 times greater than the non-metro growth rate from migration.

These recent trends illustrate how migration favors urban growth over rural growth. Compared to urban areas, the rural areas of Texas have smaller migration volumes, lower migration rates, and a more limited geography of population mobility. As a result, migration is a key factor in the state’s urban growth while growth from migration is minimal in rural areas.

Current trends suggest external migration is facilitating a growing population divide between urban and rural Texas. Urban growth and rural decline are not new phenomena in Texas. Historically, though, these were mainly due to migration from the farm to the city – a process of internal migration. Today, migration from outside of Texas is fueling unprecedented urbanization. Domestic migrants and immigrants show overwhelming preferences for metropolitan living and are shifting the population shares of urban and rural areas. In this sense, external migration is sharpening the existing demographic differences between the urban and rural areas of Texas.

Authors Steve White, Dr. Lloyd Potter, Dr. Helen You, Dr. Lila Valencia, Dr. Jeffrey A. Jordan, and Sara Robinson
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Title Urban Texas - Part Two
Pub. Date September 2017

In the 100 years between 1910 and 2010, Texas added more than 21 million people. The majority of this growth occurred in a 30-year span between 1980 and 2010. Recent growth continues to be robust. Texas grew more than any U.S. state between 2015 and 2016, adding some 433,000 people. Though population growth has been strong and consistent for Texas as a whole, it has been uneven within the state. This uneven growth is the result of differences in the components of population change: births, deaths, and migration. Such differences are especially apparent when comparing the state’s urban and rural areas. Between 2015 and 2016, the metropolitan areas of Texas grew 1.7 percent while the non-metropolitan areas had a growth rate of 0.3 percent. This rate disparity is due to differences in natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) and positive net migration (the excess of in-migrants over out-migrants). Both natural increase and net migration strongly favor urban population growth. The 2015-2016 metropolitan rate of natural increase was 8.27 persons per 1,000 residents compared to a rate of 2.74 persons per 1,000 residents in non-metropolitan areas. For net migration, the urban-rural divide was even greater. Metropolitan areas had a net migration rate of 8.80 persons per 1,000 residents while the non-metropolitan rate was 0.35 persons per 1,000 residents.

Population growth also was uneven among the 25 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in Texas. In 2015-2016, the individual MSA growth rates ranged from -1.4 percent up to 2.9 percent. All 25 MSAs had positive rates of natural increase but 12 experienced negative net migration.

Migration has been a key to recent urban growth in Texas. MSAs with higher migration rates tend to have higher growth rates. For example, in 2015-2016, the five fastest growing MSAs also had the state’s top five migration rates. These recent high net migration rates have transformed the state’s largest metropolitan areas into urban growth hubs. At the same time, some less populated urban areas are losing population through migration and many rural areas have low or negative growth rates. A continuation of this growth divide could leave large areas of Texas with limited access to employment, medical care, educational opportunities, and other goods and services.

Authors Steve White, Dr. Lloyd Potter, Dr. Helen You, Dr. Lila Valencia, Dr. Jeffrey A. Jordan, Beverly Pecotte and Sara Robinson
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Title Urban Texas - Part One
Pub. Date August 2017

In contemporary Texas, the vast majority of population growth occurs in metropolitan areas. With every decennial census since 1850, the state’s population share in what are today’s metropolitan counties has increased while the population share of the non-metropolitan counties has declined. As a result of this historical process of population concentration, Texas now has 25 areas designated as Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA). Even though 100 years of urban population growth produced 25 MSAs in Texas, most of this growth has occurred in a handful of the state’s urbanized areas. Historically, the primary engines of urban growth have been the Dallas and Houston metro areas. More recently, this pattern of ever-increasing population concentration also has been occurring in the Austin and San Antonio metro areas.

If current trends continue, 95 percent of the state’s future growth will occur in today’s metropolitan counties. Some have questioned the state’s capacity to sustain this amount of population growth. Population concentration from this ongoing urbanization will create both opportunities and challenges. Finding a balance will require strategies that adapt to higher population densities while minimizing negative outcomes in the urban environment.

Authors Steve White, Dr. Lloyd Potter, Dr. Helen You, Dr. Lila Valencia, Dr. Jeffrey A. Jordan, Beverly Pecotte and Sara Robinson
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Title Texas Migration
Pub. Date January 2017

This brief examines migration in Texas counties based on total mobility, migration flows, net migration, immigration, and connectivity. With each of these migration measures, there is a strong contrast between the largest population counties and the smallest population counties in Texas. Also, the group of 14 Border Counties has its own distinctive migration characteristics.

In general, the largest population counties have the highest mobility rates, greatest migration volumes, highest overall migration rates, and highest overall connectivity with other counties. The vast majority of migration in these larger counties originates outside of Texas – coming from other U.S. states or other countries.

The smallest population counties also are affected by migration but, in many instances, these counties are losing residents from out-migration to other Texas counties and have flat or low rates of domestic and international migration. These counties are less connected to other counties than the largest population counties and tend to gain fewer migrants per county-to-county link.

The Border Counties have low volumes and low rates of internal and domestic migration. But these counties have the highest immigration rates of all the county categories. Thus, while the loss of population from migration is similar to that of the state’s least populated counties, the border counties are growing rapidly from immigration and natural increase.

Authors Steve White, Dr. Lloyd Potter, Dr. Helen You, Dr. Lila Valencia, Dr. Jeffrey A. Jordan, and Beverly Pecotte
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Title Texas Mobility
Pub. Date November 2016

The stream of people moving to Texas has received much attention in recent years. Migration has added around a quarter million new Texans a year, and this has raised concerns about whether the state can accommodate this kind of growth.

However, with one million people moving between Texas counties, far more migration begins and ends within the state. Unlike domestic and international migration, these internal moves cannot change the state’s total population size.

However, internal migration can simultaneously cause some counties to have population growth while others experience population decline. As such, the population changes from external and internal migration pose different challenges for Texas’ planners and decision-makers.

Authors Steve White, Dr. Lloyd Potter, Dr. Helen You, Dr. Lila Valencia, Dr. Jeffrey A. Jordan, and Beverly Pecotte
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Title Aging in Texas: Introduction
Pub. Date June 2016
Overview When it comes to demographic shifts, Texas often leads the pack. However, with population aging trends, Texas seems to be on a unique path. This brief is the first in our Aging in Texas series. In general population, aging in Texas falls parallel to U.S. aging trends. Among all states, Texas has the third largest elderly population in the country. Additionally, the older population in Texas grew at a faster rate than in the nation from 2000 to 2014. However, while Texas has a large elderly population and continues to age, it is relatively younger than most states in the country. In this brief, we explore these seemingly contradictive trends by comparing indicators of aging across states and in the U.S.
Authors Dr. Lila Valencia, Dr. Lloyd Potter, Sara Robinson, Beverly Pecotte, Steve White, and Dr. Helen You
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Title Introduction to Texas Domestic Migration
Pub. Date April 2016
Overview Texas has experienced unprecedented population growth in the early 21st century, adding more than six million residents since 2000. Domestic migration has been a key source of this growth. In recent years, Texas has become the number one destination for the nation’s domestic migrants. Between 2005 and 2013, 4.8 million people moved to Texas from other states. During this same time period, the state’s population grew by an average of 125,778 persons per year due to net domestic migration. This migration has been characterized by both geographic and demographic selectivity. For example, recent domestic migration affected 251 of the state’s 254 counties but almost half of the in-migration to Texas occurred in the following six Texas counties: Bexar, Dallas, El Paso, Harris, Tarrant, and Travis. Similarly, when compared to the state’s total population, domestic migrants to Texas are younger, more likely to be male, and less likely to be Hispanic. Also, when we examine the race/ethnicity of the state’s domestic in-migrants, we find differences in their origin states as well as their nativity. Because of this selectivity, domestic migration is affecting not only the size but also the distribution and the composition of the Texas population. As Texas continues to attract large numbers of people from other parts of the United States, much of the state’s future is being shaped by today’s patterns of domestic migration.
Authors Steve White, Dr. Lloyd B. Potter, Dr. Helen You, Dr. Lila Valencia, Dr. Jeffrey A. Jordan, and Beverly Pecotte
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Title The Foreign-Born Population in Texas: Sources of Growth
Pub. Date October 2015
Overview Based on the size and composition of its foreign-born population, Texas is more international than at any time since its statehood in 1845. By 2013, more than one of every 10 foreign-born persons in the United States resided in Texas. Presently, about one out of six Texas residents was born in a foreign country. In this brief, we examine the sources of growth for the foreign-born population in Texas and discuss the implications of this trend for the state. Using U.S. Census Bureau data, we show that slightly more than half of the 2012-2013 net migration to Texas was by foreign-born persons and that domestic migration accounts for almost 40 percent of the growth in the state’s foreign-born population.
Authors Steve White, Dr. Lloyd B. Potter, Dr. Helen You, Dr. Lila Valencia, Dr. Jeffrey A. Jordan, and Beverly Pecotte
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Title Origins of Immigrants to Texas
Pub. Date May 2015
Overview Recent Census data suggest a new pattern of immigration is emerging in Texas. Traditionally, Texas immigration has been dominated by people originating in Latin America, particularly Mexico. Following the 2007-2009 recession, immigration from Mexico has declined sharply. In 2005, 56.8 percent of all non-citizen immigrants originated in Mexico. By 2013, Mexican-origin immigrants made up only 27.1 percent of all non-citizen immigrants. This decline is being offset by non-Latin American immigrants, especially those of Asian origin. In 2005, Asian-origin immigrants comprised 17.3 percent of all non-citizen immigrants. By 2013, the Asian-origin share had risen to 40.4 percent. With this shift in immigrant origins, the immigration stream to Texas has become much more diverse than in the past. Using a standard measure of diversity where 1.00 represents maximum diversity, we find that immigrant diversity in Texas has risen from 0.67 in 2005 to 0.90 in 2013. With this rise, Texas’ immigrant diversity has become similar to that of legacy immigration destinations such as California (0.93) and New York (0.95). These recent patterns suggest a new kind of 21st century immigration which will lead to an increasingly diverse Texas population.
Authors Steve White, Dr. Lloyd B. Potter, Dr. Helen You, Dr. Lila Valencia, Dr. Jeffrey A. Jordan, and Beverly Pecotte
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Title Introduction to Migration in Texas Brief
Pub. Date March 2015
Overview In this brief we show how migration is shaping the size and composition of the Texas population. In recent years, migration has played an important role in the state’s remarkable population growth. With the continuation of these recent migration patterns, strong population growth will persist into the future. Based on recent migration trends, we project a population of 54.4 million persons in Texas by 2050. Without migration, the state’s population in 2050 would be 31.2 million. In addition to adding 23.2 million additional persons by 2050, migration would also affect the age structure in Texas. With migration, the Texas population would have a smaller share of its population over 65 years of age and a larger share of its population in 15 to 64 year old age group. This suggests that continued migration will generate more workers per retiree. Consequently, the future patterns of Texas migration could have important implications for our ability to maintain an adequate support system for our elderly population.
Authors Steve White, Dr. Lloyd B. Potter, Dr. Helen You, Dr.Lila Valencia, and Dr. Jeffrey A. Jordan
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Title Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050
Pub. Date November 2014
Overview The Texas Demographic Center produce population projections for 40 years beyond the most recent census. This population projections brief includes a summary of our most recent set of projections using the 0.5 migration scenario, or projections that incorporate one half of the migration patterns observed in Texas between 2000 and 2010. This brief includes information on the projected growth of the population by sex, select age groups, and race/ethnicity. The brief also provides a population pyramid depicting the projected age structure of the population. A summary of the fastest growing and declining counties in the State and a map of the geographic distribution of the population are also presented.
Researchers Dr. Lloyd Potter and Dr. Nazrul Hoque
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Title Educational Attainment Projections of the Texas Civilian Workforce, 2011-2030
Pub. Date April, 2014
Overview The education of the future labor force is of crucial importance for the future economic vitality of Texas. Recognition of trends in educational attainment and education disparities will improve our understanding of what it will take to ensure the Texas labor force is prepared to meet the demands of our growing economy. This report presents two sets of projections for educational attainment for the civilian labor force in Texas. One assumes that current rates of educational attainment will prevail and the second assumes that recent trends in educational attainment will continue. In Texas, education investment must be targeted toward improving the educational attainment of young Hispanics. By ensuring that our labor force has the educational attainment needed to draw business and industry to Texas with jobs that require greater skills and education, we will ensure an economy that sustains a high quality of life for generations to come.
Authors Dr. Helen You and Dr. Lloyd Potter
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Title Gaining Costs, Losing Time: The Obesity Crisis in Texas
Pub. Date February 2011
Overview This research produced for the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts produces projections of the obese and normal weight populations through 2030. The Office of the State Demographer projects the Texas adult obesity rate will reach nearly 37 percent in 2030.
Researchers Dr. Lloyd Potter and Dr. Helen You
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Title Filling the Transit Gaps: Unserved Urbanized Area Populations
Pub. Date September 2010
Overview Federal and state funding is largely distributed based upon federally defined geographic areas - urbanized areas or rural (non-urbanized) areas. For urban transit districts, the funding is based upon characteristics of the entire urbanized area. However, the service area boundary for transit providers in urbanized areas often does not match the urbanized area boundary, leaving a portion of the urbanized area without a designated transit provider. The unserved area is referred to as an urban gap. This research estimates the magnitude and characteristics of individuals in urban gaps in all urbanized areas in Texas based upon both the 2000 Census and a projection of the 2010 Census. The research then presents case studies on a variety of approaches that are being used in Texas to fund and operate transit service to urban gap populations.
Researchers Dr. Lloyd Potter, Dr. Lila Valencia, and Dr. Jeffrey A. Jordan
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Title Estimated Impact of the 2010 Census on the Texas Transit Funding Formula
Pub. Date April 2010
Overview The purpose of the research for Project 0-6199, Estimated Impact of the 2010 Census on the Texas Transit Funding Formula, is to project population growth for the 2010 Census in urbanized and non-urbanized areas in Texas and to identify the impacts on funding allocations using the Texas Transit Funding Formula.
Researchers Dr. Karl Eschbach and Dr. Michael Cline
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Title Estimating and Projecting Need for Adult Basic Education
Pub. Date March 2010
Overview This research estimates and projects the population in need of adult basic education services in Texas for the Workforce Investment Council in the Office of the Governor. Incorporating data from the American Community Survey and Texas Demographic Center, projections for 2008 to 2040 were provided by age, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, and nativity at the State and local workforce development area levels
Researchers Dr. Karl Eschbach, Dr. Helen You, and Dr. Lila Valencia
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Title Summary Report on Diabetes Projections in Texas, 2007 to 2040
[Full Report] [Report Methodology]
Pub. Date 2008
Overview Adult diabetes rates have been increasing at an alarming rate in Texas. These increases have occurred across the board for all ethnic groups and all ages. There are especially dramatic increases among young adults, for who diagnosed diabetes rates more than doubled from 2004 to 2007. These increases are of tremendous concern. If people in their 20s are already having diabetes, the rates for this cohort may be dramatically higher in 20 years, when the current generation of persons in their 20s reaches their 40s.
Researchers Dr. Karl Eschbach and Dr. Vincent Fonseca
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Title The Texas Challenge in the Twenty-First Century: Implications of Population Change for the Future of Texas
[Full Report] [Summary Report]
Pub. Date December 2002
Overview A report prepared for the Texas Legislative Council by the Center for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research and Education. The report is a broad assessment of the implications of population change for public service demand and costs in Texas.
Researchers Dr. Steve H. Murdock, Steve White, Dr. Md. Nazrul Hoque, Beverly Pecotte, Xiuhong You, Jennifer Balkan
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Title Atlas of Mortality for Texas: Urban-Rural Death Rates by Race/Ethnicity and Gender, 1990 and 2000
Pub. Date August 2002
Overview Persons in nonmetropolitan areas tend to report lower health status than their urban counterparts; and minority, poor, and rural individuals are more likely to suffer with chronic conditions than persons who are nonminority, nonpoor, and live in urban areas. Further, rural minorities are more likely to have a lower health status than their counterparts who are white or who live in either more urban or suburban areas
Researchers Dr. Mary A. McGehee, Dr. Stanley D. Hall, and Dr. Steve H. Murdock