Texas Population Estimates Program

The production timeline for our population estimates spans the entire year. Data collection begins in July of the estimate year by gathering administrative data from state agencies. It closes the following June with the finalization of the TDC survey cycle.

Data enters the processing phase after collection, followed by an internal review period. The production and internal review of the group quarters population, which are facilities that house groups of unrelated individuals, such as prisons, college dormitories, and nursing homes, continues until July. An internal review of county and place estimate totals occurs from July through September.

Following this internal review, these preliminary population estimates are shared with an external review board and local governments, initiating a comment period. During this comment period, reviewers can communicate possible errors or changes they believe should be made to the estimates. After appropriately updating the estimates according to the feedback received during the comment period, the final county and place population estimates are then released in the first week of November.

The Texas Demographic Center produces estimates for five mutually exclusive groups: Non-Hispanic White Alone, non-Hispanic Black or African American Alone, Hispanic of all races, non-Hispanic Asian Alone, and Non-Hispanic Other. The last category consists of individuals such as Alaska and American Indians, Pacific Islanders, and all persons listing two or more races.

The Texas Demographic Center produces population estimates for the state, counties, and incorporated places. Incorporated places, more commonly known as cities and towns, are governmental entities established under state law with specific legal powers and functions.

Our population estimates are based on three types of data: survey data, administrative data, and publicly available data.

Survey Data: Five annual surveys, conducted from October to February, collect information from Texas counties, cities, and educational institutions.

• Higher Education Survey: This survey collects enrollment totals and the number of students living in university-owned housing from higher education institutions.
• Private School Survey: This survey collects student enrollment totals for grades 1-8.
• Annexation & Boundary Survey: This survey collects information related to boundary changes that may affect the population of incorporated places.
• New Residential Units Surveys (Incorporated Places/Unincorporated Areas): This survey collects information from cities and counties concerning new residential housing units in the state’s incorporated places and unincorporated areas.

Administrative Data: Our office collects administrative data from national and state agencies. These data include federal and state prison statistics, vital statistics, voter registration numbers, vehicle registration numbers, public school enrollment data, nursing home population counts, and manufactured home data.

Publicly Available Data: The U.S. Census Bureau produces publicly available data, including the Decennial Censuses, American Community survey, monthly building permit data, and Population Estimates.

We use these data sources to produce our population estimates because they are available across the state and are comparable across years. They are also highly correlated with the population and are commonly used in well-established methods for population estimates.

The Texas Demographic Center and the U.S. Census Bureau provide population estimates for Texas, focusing on county and place totals as of July of each year. Additionally, both programs offer state and county estimates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, as well as total population estimates for places. However, there are differences in the methodologies and data offered.

	U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Estimates	Texas Demographic Center Population Estimates
Data released in each vintage of estimates	Estimate totals for the State, counties, and incorporated places Estimates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity for the State and counties Estimates for all years since the base year of the Decennial Census Components of change estimates (birth, death, migration) ‘Part’ Place estimates (the breakdown of place estimates by county) Estimates of the unincorporated areas of each county Housing unit estimates	Estimate totals for the State, counties, and incorporated places Estimates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity for the State and counties Estimates for July 1st of the vintage year and January 1st of the following year with numerical and percent change calculated since the base year of the Decennial Census
Release timeline	Released incrementally from December to July	Released in November of every year
Race and ethnicity categories	Not Hispanic and Hispanic Alone or in combination categories for: White Black or African American American Indian or Alaska Native Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Two or more races	Non-Hispanic White Alone Non-Hispanic Black or African American Alone Hispanic of all races Non-Hispanic Asian Alone Non-Hispanic Other
Age categories	Ages less than 1 year old to 85 years and older	Ages less than 1 year old to 95 years and older

Differences in the input data and methodology used will lead to slight variations between the TDC population estimates and the Census Bureau’s estimates. Take consistency into consideration when deciding which estimates to use. If you have referenced estimates from the TDC in the past, then continue to do so. Refrain from combining estimates from both sources to avoid inconsistencies in the data across years. Also consider the timing of the estimates’ release and the data offered when deciding which source to use.

The review process for our population estimates begins with an internal review, where TDC staff compares results across the three methods used: the component method II, the housing unit method, and the ratio correlation method. Additionally, we evaluate our estimates against those from other sources, such as the Census Bureau estimates, and we analyze historical trends for consistency. Following the internal review, an external review is conducted. The Texas Demographic Center sends the preliminary estimates to an external estimate review board consisting of state and local governmental units, who may provide new or alternative data or assess the suitability of the estimates in specific areas.

Respond to our Annual Surveys: Local data and knowledge are crucial to the production of accurate population estimates. You can assist us in our mission by consistently responding to our annual surveys on residential units and annexation information for your municipality or county. Help ensure that we have up-to-date contact information so that your government can continue to receive important correspondence from our office.

Participate in the external review process: Make your voice heard by participating in the external review process for our preliminary population estimates, which occurs every October. The external review process allows you to indicate any errors or appropriate changes you believe should be made to the estimates. We ask that you provide additional data to substantiate potential errors and information to suggest alternative estimates. Our population estimates may be revised following this review process.

Contact us: Lastly, do not hesitate to communicate any questions or concerns you may have with our population estimates outside of the external review process. Our office will work with you to address your concerns and provide additional information about our estimates. Send us an email at tdc@utsa.edu