Lloyd Potter
Texas State Demographer
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Vintage 2024 Population Projections

Population projections for counties from 2020 to 2060.

Texas Population Projections Program

The Texas Demographic Center generates biennial population projections for the state and its counties by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. The projections should be used only with full awareness of the inherent limitations of population projections and with detailed knowledge of the procedures and assumptions delineated in the methodology document.

Vintage 2024 Projections

The Texas Demographic Center Vintage 2024 projections consist of the state's and its counties residential populations by age, sex, and race/ethnicity for each year from 2020 through 2060. The projections are available under three migration scenarios.

Past vintages of population projections are available upon request. Please contact us.

Population Projections Webinar

You can find a recording of our Vintage 2024 Population Projections webinar on our YouTube channel, offering a comprehensive overview of our methodology and process for our population projections program. Our PowerPoint presentation is also available if you’d like to review the material again or share it with others.

Important user notes

Major changes have been made to the Vintage 2024 methodology. Users may notice differences in the following areas:

  1. The data includes April 1st, 2020 Decennial Census Counts and the projection for the July 1st, 2020 population. The two 2020 records are distinguished by the “year_month” column.
  2. The projected population from 2020 to 2024 is aligned with the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2024 July 1st Estimates.
  3. The projections are available with three migration scenarios, mid, low, and high, corresponding to the three national projection series produced by the Census Bureau in 2023.

Projected Population Growth Interactive Chart

Use the interactive graph to track how Texas’ population has changed through the years, with several scenarios to compare.

Texas County Population Projections

View the population projections in your area. Tables with population projections for counties, metropolitan statistical areas, and councils of government can be selected from the drop down menu below. These tables are for viewing only. If you wish to download the data, use the Custom Download Tool.
Name 2020
April		 2030
July		 2040
July		 2050
July		 2060
July		 Change
2020-2060		 %Change
2020-2060

Population Projections 2020-2060
Suggested Citations

Projections Methodology

Review the methodology prior to using the data.

Build Your Own Table

Create custom tables by your selected demographic characteristics, geography, and migration scenarios.
Custom Download

Download Data

Download the zip file with data for the state and all counties by age, race, sex, and methodology.

Mid Migration Scenario

Assumes the US and Texas migration patterns remain similar to the past two decades.
Recommended for most purposes.

High Migration Scenario

Assumes a higher migration scenario than the average patterns in the past two decades.
Recommended for use when immigration levels are high.

Low Migration Scenario

Assumes a lower migration scenario than the average pattern in the past two decades.
Recommended for use when immigration levels are low.