Lloyd Potter
Texas State Demographer

Texas Population Projections Program

The Texas Demographic Center generates biennial population projections for the state and its counties by age, gender, and race/ethnicity. The projections should be used only with full awareness of the inherent limitations of population projections and with detailed knowledge of the procedures and assumptions delineated in the methodology statement.

Vintage 2022 Projections

You can find a recording of our Population Projections webinar on our YouTube channel, offering a comprehensive overview of our methodology and process for our population projections program.

Projected Population Growth in Texas with Various Migration Scenarios
SOURCE: Texas Demographic Center, Vintage 2014 and 2018, 2022 Population Projections

The Texas Demographic Center Vintage 2022 projections consist of the projections of the resident population of the State by age and sex, and of the total resident population of all counties in the State for each year from 2020 through 2060, with the 2020 population equal to the 2020 census count for the State of Texas and all counties in Texas. Both the state and the county projections are available in two migration scenarios.

Due to the delay in the release of the 2020 Decennial Census detailed demographic data and the changes implemented in the 2020 Decennial Census, such as the new measures to provide privacy protection as well as the changes in the race/ethnic questions and the processing, projections with demographic details, especially at the county level, are not available now. Further research is needed to produce reasonable, detailed projections by race/ethnicity. Contact TDC for questions.

Population Projections
Suggested Citations

Projections Methodology

Please carefully review the entire methodology summary prior to using the data.

Projection 2020-2060 – 1.0 Migration Scenario

Assume the migration rates between 2010-2020. Recommended for near-term planning purposes.

Projection 2020-2060 - 0.5 Migration Scenario

Assume the migration rates half of those between 2010-2020. Recommended for long-term planning purposes.

Population Projections Citation Examples

Data File Citation

Author (Release Year). Title. Retrieved [Date], from [File URL]


Texas Demographic Center (2022). Projections of the Total Population of Texas and Counties in Texas, 2020-2060 (0.5 Migration Scenario). Retrieved February 21, 2024, from https://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/TPEPP/Projections/2022/2022statetotsex_mig100.csv.

Methodology Citation

Author (Release Year). Title [Methodology]. Retrieved [Date], from [File URL]


Texas Demographic Center (2023). Projections of the Total Population of Texas and Counties in Texas, 2020-2060 [Methodology]. Retrieved February 21, 2024, from https://demographics.texas.gov/Projections/2022/TotalMethodology.pdf.